In fact, they might want to learn that the biggest mistake of the “left” was trying to create a reality rather than describe one, trying to enforce a reality rather than live in the one that exists and reach people there.”
I think it correlates also to differences we saw on how those with college degrees vs those without, voted. (MSM call the former “educated” but that is highly inaccurate and really prejudiced against the latter group). I think many in the college degree group have become less grounded in reality as their work has moved online, at home, virtual and less often including in-person interactions. Couple that with the delusion and fallacy of gov and corporate DEI programs and you have a staff and population of too-secure wishful thinkers who rarely see first hand the tragedy playing out in our slums and slum borders. I live close to the Merion country club and see all sorts of Harris signs on multi-million dollar estates, but do you think they have any blacks there other than the ones carrying the golf clubs for their fat asses? Their reality is that they’re noble and the rest of us are to be pitied or mocked.
Ps Happy Veterans Day to the vets here. Much love ❤️.
I have a few things on my plate this morning but this might the place to share some thoughts I've been having about how The Credentialed entered The Clerisy and didn't realize that, if BigGov, BigMedia, BigHollywood, BigSports, BigEntertainment are all on your side, you're not really The Resistance.
Some of Mrs. Pi's Latino college friends are in that group. I think they want to think want to be perceived as struggling immigrants, because there's a Victimhood Celebrity that comes with it - when they're actually super successful professionals in software development and law and insurance and drive nice cars and have beach houses. I think that's why they're so surprised that other Latinos "didn't do their job" and vote like a monolith.
There are plenty of Credentialeds/Certifieds that are also Meaningfully Educated in such a way that they have useful skills. Pato's certs are meaningful - IT Guy, if I recall.
Happy belated Veteran's Day indeed. Thanks again for your service. May we never forget those who made incredible sacrifices in answering the call to serve. Peace and freedom should never be taken for granted, so may we be wise and pay it forwards with kindness, respect, and gratitude.
Since he's kinda a celebrity here at ASIG, The Divine Comedy is where Mrs. Pi came up with The Husky Dawg's name: Dante.
Both of us having read it/them (I only read Inferno but she had to read all three books in her El Salvador Catholic School in the late 80s) ) was something cool that we had in common.
The story came up somehow at a work happy hour, I made a Virgil and Dante make a quick escape out of Satan's Poop Chute comment and she got it.
Excellent and insightful analysis on why the pundits missed the mark on the election results. Lillia Gajewski provides a compelling postmortem on what happened and why. It’s important that we learn from our own mistakes and those of others.
In summary, this article is about the keys to winning & losing last week, with the degree to which differing perspectives align with reality being the key to the keys.
It's definitely one of the better post mortums I've read so far. I only wish my Democrat friends had the objectivity to learn from it. Tragically, the brainwashing from the MSM propaganda outlets has been too effective and reluctance to admit error too strong for most of them.
Secondly, I agree (and have long believed) that the election is a war for %15-20 of the mushy middle. Everyone else is locked in to their tribe, which is about %40 to 45% each. However, I think the Tribes are getting very radical for some. That's why you see, for example, Hispanics voting for Trump is truly historic numbers. And, if you are on The Institutional Left, you would have asked yourself a heartfelt "why?" But what happened? They called them racists and bigots. Super easy to do, as it requires zero introspection.
And this leads to my next point; the tribalism is hardening. The walls are being reinforced, and built higher, mainly with the design to keep The Other out. The purity tests are being strengthened and re-written, sometimes daily. There is zero room for argument. You don't need to fall in love, but you most certainly WILL fall in line. (credit to the original source, can't remember it right now. Rush? I dunno)
What I"ve seen is that the D's have decided to create a future mandate for governing by creating groups of people who are indebted to them. It began with the Civil Rights Act and Johnson, who was quoted as saying "They'll be voting for us for a 100 years." (is that it? I dunno, I'm too lazy to look it up.)
So that's why they think women are locked in because of abortion, young voters will be locked in because of student debt "forgiveness," college educated will be locked in because they were indoctrinated, seniors (or seniors to be) are locked in because of the myth of Social Security.
I also think what the D's have tried to was craft within the fires of Mt. Doom the "one constituency to rule them all," the one policy that *everyone* will be indebted to. That's where Obama and his "Affordable" Care Act came in. Well, that turd plopped into the punchbowl and didn't unite the electorate behind the D's, as they hoped, but was a failure from the jump because the end result, the actual implementation of it all, stunk.
So back to the Cracks of Mt Doom, and Sauron/Obama/The Left poured their malice and hate and spite into the creation of, truly, the one constituency to bind them all in never ending darkness: Identity Politics.
At which point, a reverse hobbit named The Donald enters the scene and calls bullshit on all of it.
Calling Tolkien Hollywood might constitute defamation per se. Even the Jackson films were something surprisingly special. Everything after that however, yeah you could lump in as a product of Hollywood.
No no no. I am lobbying for him to be cast as Gandalf the Grey who comes back from near death experience and battle with the Demonocrats to return a wiser and kinder wizard. Please get on board!
Like a snowball rolling down a mountain, a landslide often starts slow before becoming unstoppable. The landslide victory will become evident when Clarence Thomas retires and DJT appoints another conservative judge. It may prove destabilizing to Europe when the USA stops funding the Kiev gangsters. We'll just have to wait and see. My guess is that Zelensky will be drinking a Margarita in front of his palatial home in Florida within six months.
It would be like living next to a Jehovah's Witness on crack. Every day, the dirty little beggar would be knocking at the door asking for a cup of sugar or a few hundred dollars.
The other big problem that Lichtman's "13 Keys" models seems to his is that it is wholly inflexible. Obviously you pointed out that it didn't consider Harris entering the race, but it also clearly paid no mind to debate performance or most notably an assassination attempt in a critical swing state. It seems more suited to predict the popular vote than it does electoral vote however. Curious to find out how Lichtman justified 2016 with it.
I WOULD bet on Mr. Lichtman to have reclaimed some credibility come the next election, but his admission that he was wrong, while true, lacks authenticity because he simply cannot bring himself to identify just where he was wrong.
There is an old Peanuts strip where Sherman is explaining to Charlie Brown how regardless of his behaviour, he'll still receive Christmas gifts from Santa - the conclusion being that being good the rest of the year is of little or no value. He seeks Charlie Brown's agreement by asking, "...right?"
Charlie Brown's response in his own head is, "Wrong - but I don't know where."
Were Mr. Lichtman to respond in a similar fashion, it would still be magnitudes intellectually more honest than his hopeless clinging to his 13 Keys analysis - it's as catchy and memorable as Richard's 9-Step Refuse to Lose Program:
This kind of denial, while certainly more pronounced among the Democrat Party and legacy media (but I repeat myself) elites, has also been evident among Republicans. See the Never Trumpers, the Lincoln Project, the editorial staff of National Review, and/or the campaign organization of one George HW Bush who was no less the cypher for the GOP that The Cackler was for Democrats.
HW never did embrace Reagan's tax cut and the ten-year-plus boom that followed. He, and his campaign, thought they could fool the voters with his "read my lips..." (you know the rest), and trying to tell those who had been laid off (or soon would be) that the economy, as a whole, is cyclical, and that things would improve shortly after the new year. Luckily for me, when I offered that explanation to my landlord, credit card issuers, and auto finance company, they completely understood - NOT!
The single most damning insult (to me, anyway) was when Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady was asked a question regarding the price of a loaf of bread, he sought to teach an macro-economics lesson from Harvard because he had no idea what a loaf of bread cost because he had likely never set foot in a Kroger, A&P, or Winn-Dixie - but, HW snacked on pork rinds - much like The Cackler enjoyed beer.
These people will only wake up to reality when they have no other choice - they know the day is coming, but just can't bring themselves to see how close it is.
This argument in particular I find insightful; “
In fact, they might want to learn that the biggest mistake of the “left” was trying to create a reality rather than describe one, trying to enforce a reality rather than live in the one that exists and reach people there.”
I think it correlates also to differences we saw on how those with college degrees vs those without, voted. (MSM call the former “educated” but that is highly inaccurate and really prejudiced against the latter group). I think many in the college degree group have become less grounded in reality as their work has moved online, at home, virtual and less often including in-person interactions. Couple that with the delusion and fallacy of gov and corporate DEI programs and you have a staff and population of too-secure wishful thinkers who rarely see first hand the tragedy playing out in our slums and slum borders. I live close to the Merion country club and see all sorts of Harris signs on multi-million dollar estates, but do you think they have any blacks there other than the ones carrying the golf clubs for their fat asses? Their reality is that they’re noble and the rest of us are to be pitied or mocked.
Ps Happy Veterans Day to the vets here. Much love ❤️.
“educated”
I find Credentialed a better term.
I have a few things on my plate this morning but this might the place to share some thoughts I've been having about how The Credentialed entered The Clerisy and didn't realize that, if BigGov, BigMedia, BigHollywood, BigSports, BigEntertainment are all on your side, you're not really The Resistance.
Some of Mrs. Pi's Latino college friends are in that group. I think they want to think want to be perceived as struggling immigrants, because there's a Victimhood Celebrity that comes with it - when they're actually super successful professionals in software development and law and insurance and drive nice cars and have beach houses. I think that's why they're so surprised that other Latinos "didn't do their job" and vote like a monolith.
Everyone has at least some tendency to externalize personal responsibility from time to time. Some more than others clearly.
I, an idiot who rides a bike and is nominally a duck, approve of Credential Class. Mostly because I like alliteration.
Aye!
Ahoy!
Alliteration are awesome.
Absolutely! Alliteration is "ALWAYS" awesome!
Assuredly I asseverate as a massive assonance aspirant.
Stand back guys! We got a big brain here!
This comment brought to you by the letter A.
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/206954545360027961/
While "educated" is good, how about "certified"?
It's also technically accurate, and is close to "certifiable", which also is accurate.
That's good and all, but I working like heck to get "certified" for my job, so I'm a bit resistant. But that's just me.
There are plenty of Credentialeds/Certifieds that are also Meaningfully Educated in such a way that they have useful skills. Pato's certs are meaningful - IT Guy, if I recall.
That is a good descriptor
Happy belated Veteran's Day indeed. Thanks again for your service. May we never forget those who made incredible sacrifices in answering the call to serve. Peace and freedom should never be taken for granted, so may we be wise and pay it forwards with kindness, respect, and gratitude.
You really should be a poet! Thanks for the joy! Here’s my Haiku just for you. Joy for our today, we’ll save our lonely sorrows, in distant tomorrows.
While not quite on the level of the Divine Comedy, I sincerely appreciate the gesture nonetheless. Haiku's are always more welcome than limericks.
In some sense we're all accomplished poets, being the perennial practitioners of free verse that we are.
"the Divine Comedy"
Since he's kinda a celebrity here at ASIG, The Divine Comedy is where Mrs. Pi came up with The Husky Dawg's name: Dante.
Both of us having read it/them (I only read Inferno but she had to read all three books in her El Salvador Catholic School in the late 80s) ) was something cool that we had in common.
The story came up somehow at a work happy hour, I made a Virgil and Dante make a quick escape out of Satan's Poop Chute comment and she got it.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/N8tjF6Se8oanvpAD9
Excellent and insightful analysis on why the pundits missed the mark on the election results. Lillia Gajewski provides a compelling postmortem on what happened and why. It’s important that we learn from our own mistakes and those of others.
Thank you!
I'm only on Key 7 but, dag... I love a good analysis.
In summary, this article is about the keys to winning & losing last week, with the degree to which differing perspectives align with reality being the key to the keys.
It's definitely one of the better post mortums I've read so far. I only wish my Democrat friends had the objectivity to learn from it. Tragically, the brainwashing from the MSM propaganda outlets has been too effective and reluctance to admit error too strong for most of them.
Thank you for summarizing my article better than I could.
As Walter Kirn says - don’t call it MSM anymore, it’s the corporate war media, and disinformation is simply lies.
He's right.
First of all, really like the 'Stack. Well done.
Secondly, I agree (and have long believed) that the election is a war for %15-20 of the mushy middle. Everyone else is locked in to their tribe, which is about %40 to 45% each. However, I think the Tribes are getting very radical for some. That's why you see, for example, Hispanics voting for Trump is truly historic numbers. And, if you are on The Institutional Left, you would have asked yourself a heartfelt "why?" But what happened? They called them racists and bigots. Super easy to do, as it requires zero introspection.
And this leads to my next point; the tribalism is hardening. The walls are being reinforced, and built higher, mainly with the design to keep The Other out. The purity tests are being strengthened and re-written, sometimes daily. There is zero room for argument. You don't need to fall in love, but you most certainly WILL fall in line. (credit to the original source, can't remember it right now. Rush? I dunno)
What I"ve seen is that the D's have decided to create a future mandate for governing by creating groups of people who are indebted to them. It began with the Civil Rights Act and Johnson, who was quoted as saying "They'll be voting for us for a 100 years." (is that it? I dunno, I'm too lazy to look it up.)
So that's why they think women are locked in because of abortion, young voters will be locked in because of student debt "forgiveness," college educated will be locked in because they were indoctrinated, seniors (or seniors to be) are locked in because of the myth of Social Security.
I also think what the D's have tried to was craft within the fires of Mt. Doom the "one constituency to rule them all," the one policy that *everyone* will be indebted to. That's where Obama and his "Affordable" Care Act came in. Well, that turd plopped into the punchbowl and didn't unite the electorate behind the D's, as they hoped, but was a failure from the jump because the end result, the actual implementation of it all, stunk.
So back to the Cracks of Mt Doom, and Sauron/Obama/The Left poured their malice and hate and spite into the creation of, truly, the one constituency to bind them all in never ending darkness: Identity Politics.
At which point, a reverse hobbit named The Donald enters the scene and calls bullshit on all of it.
Another great use of Hollywood for an appropriate metaphor. I love it.
Calling Tolkien Hollywood might constitute defamation per se. Even the Jackson films were something surprisingly special. Everything after that however, yeah you could lump in as a product of Hollywood.
This is true. I meant no disrespect to Tolkein.
Sorry so long, but at a certain point I had an idea and I ran with it.
No problem. It was great.
Trump as Gandalf the Grey (as in grey champion of Fourth Turning).
You’re really the smartest Duck I know. On a bike or not.
Thank you for making me imagine Donald Trump as a hobbit.
No no no. I am lobbying for him to be cast as Gandalf the Grey who comes back from near death experience and battle with the Demonocrats to return a wiser and kinder wizard. Please get on board!
Like a snowball rolling down a mountain, a landslide often starts slow before becoming unstoppable. The landslide victory will become evident when Clarence Thomas retires and DJT appoints another conservative judge. It may prove destabilizing to Europe when the USA stops funding the Kiev gangsters. We'll just have to wait and see. My guess is that Zelensky will be drinking a Margarita in front of his palatial home in Florida within six months.
Oh, good grief. Imagine being his neighbor.
HaHaHaHaHa
It would be like living next to a Jehovah's Witness on crack. Every day, the dirty little beggar would be knocking at the door asking for a cup of sugar or a few hundred dollars.
I think a better explanation from Lichtman might have been something like "Whoops!" After all, his record is still pretty impressive.
It is, and I think he still would have called it “right” had he not been locked in a certain reality. Or at least he would have hedged his bets.
"but I don't think you can say I called it wrong except for in retrospect.”
WTactualF?
"Predictions are hard. Especially about the future."
- probably Yogi Berra
---
PS: had this comment on its own but I think it's better as a reply here.
The other big problem that Lichtman's "13 Keys" models seems to his is that it is wholly inflexible. Obviously you pointed out that it didn't consider Harris entering the race, but it also clearly paid no mind to debate performance or most notably an assassination attempt in a critical swing state. It seems more suited to predict the popular vote than it does electoral vote however. Curious to find out how Lichtman justified 2016 with it.
Good point. Maybe the model could be enhanced by leaving in some variables for impromptu weighting.
"Think he’ll learn? Nah, me either."
I remain stunned at the Democrats' commitment to not learning a single fucking thing from the election.
I WOULD bet on Mr. Lichtman to have reclaimed some credibility come the next election, but his admission that he was wrong, while true, lacks authenticity because he simply cannot bring himself to identify just where he was wrong.
There is an old Peanuts strip where Sherman is explaining to Charlie Brown how regardless of his behaviour, he'll still receive Christmas gifts from Santa - the conclusion being that being good the rest of the year is of little or no value. He seeks Charlie Brown's agreement by asking, "...right?"
Charlie Brown's response in his own head is, "Wrong - but I don't know where."
Were Mr. Lichtman to respond in a similar fashion, it would still be magnitudes intellectually more honest than his hopeless clinging to his 13 Keys analysis - it's as catchy and memorable as Richard's 9-Step Refuse to Lose Program:
https://youtu.be/TcebHelScM4?si=Q-HVXfjWuDI3bNmj
This kind of denial, while certainly more pronounced among the Democrat Party and legacy media (but I repeat myself) elites, has also been evident among Republicans. See the Never Trumpers, the Lincoln Project, the editorial staff of National Review, and/or the campaign organization of one George HW Bush who was no less the cypher for the GOP that The Cackler was for Democrats.
HW never did embrace Reagan's tax cut and the ten-year-plus boom that followed. He, and his campaign, thought they could fool the voters with his "read my lips..." (you know the rest), and trying to tell those who had been laid off (or soon would be) that the economy, as a whole, is cyclical, and that things would improve shortly after the new year. Luckily for me, when I offered that explanation to my landlord, credit card issuers, and auto finance company, they completely understood - NOT!
The single most damning insult (to me, anyway) was when Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady was asked a question regarding the price of a loaf of bread, he sought to teach an macro-economics lesson from Harvard because he had no idea what a loaf of bread cost because he had likely never set foot in a Kroger, A&P, or Winn-Dixie - but, HW snacked on pork rinds - much like The Cackler enjoyed beer.
These people will only wake up to reality when they have no other choice - they know the day is coming, but just can't bring themselves to see how close it is.